AP25794135 «Development of a mathematical model and analytical system for predicting the efficiency of clean biogas production».

2025-2027 36 month SDG #7 SDG #7

Project Leader

Shakerkhan Kapan, NJSC «Shakarim University», Senior Lecturer at the Department of Physics and Informatics, PhD.

Relevance

The relevance of the scientific project is to develop a mathematical model for describing the technological parameters of a bioreactor during anaerobic fermentation under industrial scale production conditions, as well as its computer visualization in real time. The novelty of the scientific project is the development of a new mathematical model of anaerobic fermentation during the utilization of animal waste, on the basis of which a computer program is created for forecasting and analyzing the efficiency of these bioenergy stations.

Goal

The goal of the scientific project is to create an information system for predicting process parameters in bioenergy stations, including determining the energy capacity of these stations throughout Kazakhstan, for further forecasting of development indicators for these technologies throughout the country.

Expected Result

- A comparative analysis of various mathematical models used in anaerobic fermentation, including the international mathematical model ADM1, will be conducted;

- Taking into account the advantages and disadvantages of various mathematical models, a new mathematical model for predicting anaerobic fermentation processes at an industrial scale will be developed;

- The determination coefficient R2 and the average relative error A will be determined, which suggests that the proposed model will be more accurate and universal;

- A computer program for predicting the operation of bioenergy stations will be created based on the developed mathematical model;

- Hypertext markup languages HTML and CSS, scripting languages PHP and Javascript, and the MySQL database will be used to develop the computer program;

- The website bioenergy-tester.kz will be developed, which will visualize statistical data on the process parameters of biomethane obtained during anaerobic fermentation.

Achieved Result

- Literature Review and International Internship. A comprehensive literature review has been conducted on the project topic: "Development of a mathematical model and analytical system for predicting the efficiency of clean biogas production." Scientific works from the 1950s, 1960s, and 1990s by international scholars—such as Monod and Michaelis-Menten, Contois, Chen-Hashimoto, Andrews, and Mouyang—as well as researchers from neighboring countries—including Kovalev A.A., Gridnev P.I., Levchinov M.D., Osmonov O.M., Vasiliev F.A., and Satyanov S.V.—were reviewed. Monographs by scholars such as Druzyanova V.P. and Egorova E.N. were studied. Scientific papers and publications on the mathematical modeling of anaerobic digestion processes were analyzed from databases including Scopus, WoS, eLibrary, Google Academia, and Crossref, as well as the National Library Funds of the Republic of Kazakhstan and the city of Kemerovo, Russian Federation. A literature analysis spanning a depth of 75 years was performed. All studied models proved to be generalized solutions and are inapplicable on an industrial scale; they describe biochemical, physicochemical, and kinetic processes of anaerobic bacterial growth and inhibition under laboratory conditions. Consequently, the use of such mathematical models in industrial settings is difficult from a practical standpoint; furthermore, parameters such as bacterial concentration and inhibition coefficients are not measurable in production environments.

Additionally, an internship at an international university was completed as part of the project, and a certificate and letter of appreciation were received from the host institution. The internship certificate is dated October 13–22, 2025, and the letter of appreciation bears the signature and seal of the Rector of Kemerovo State University (KemSU) and an Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

- Equipment and Material Procurement. The necessary equipment and devices for the project have been acquired. The ITAN pH meter/ionometer is used to monitor and maintain optimal conditions for the growth and vital activity of microorganisms involved in biological processes. The ionometer measures total dissolved solids (mineralization), and the pH meter measures the acidity of the medium. These parameters are vital for the effective functioning of the bioreactor. The i3 UV-VIS spectrophotometer in the anaerobic digestion bioreactor provides essential data for process optimization and increasing production efficiency. Additionally, the following materials were purchased: instruments and materials for chemical analysis, acids and alkalis for chemical analysis, reagents, alcohols, buffer solutions, and certified reference materials (CRM). Contracts have been finalized, and the procurement process is ccomplete.

- Database System and Conferences. A database system has been developed for storing statistical data. The configuration and launch of server equipment for data collection and storage have been successfully carried out and are operational at the University. An abstract of an article has been published in the proceedings of an International Conference, and a certificate of participation has been received. Certificates of participation in conferences held on September 11–13, 2025, are available:

a. 2nd Edition of Global Conference on Biofuels and Bioenergy (Biofuels 2025);

b. 4th Edition of International Conference on Oil, Gas, and Petroleum Engineering (GOPE 2025).

The following abstracts were published in the proceedings of these International Conferences:

Development of a mathematical model and information system for predicting technological parameters of anaerobic fermentation bioreactor. Authors: Kapan Shakerkhan, Ermek Abilmazhinov.

Environmental Governance and ESG Alignment in the Petroleum Sector: Advancing Net-Zero Strategies Through Carbon Accountability and Climate Risk Integration. Authors: Kapan Shakerkhan, Vladimir Meshechkin and Ermek Abilmazhinov.

Link: https://biofuels-energy.magnusconferences.com/uploads/pdfs/biofuels-2025-abstract-book.pdf

-- State Registration. Brief data have been prepared for the National Scientific Councils (NSC) and submitted under state registration number 0325RK01470.

Scientific Team

Шакерхан Қапан Оралғазыұлы

NJSC «Shakarim University», Senior Lecturer at the Department of Physics and Informatics, PhD.

Абильмажинов Ермек Толегенович

NJSC «Shakarim University», Department of Automation and Information Technology, Professor, Doctor of Technical Sciences